UBS Boosts S&P 500 Target: A Positive Outlook for Stock Investors

Experts at UBS raise their year-end stock outlook for the S&P 500, forecasting a target level of 5,150, up from the previous estimate of 4,850.

In a surprising turn of events, UBS, a prominent Wall Street bank, has revised its year-end prediction for the S&P 500. The bank’s team of strategists, led by Jonathan Golub, now forecasts that the index will reach 5,150 by the end of the year, surpassing their previous estimate of 4,850. The team believes that a combination of factors, including robust earnings, easing inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and an improved economic backdrop, will drive this positive performance.


Upholding Confidence in the Future

UBS’s decision to raise their outlook is rooted in their analysis of the Federal Reserve’s recent shift in monetary policy and the subsequent decline in rate expectations. Golub and his team see this as a catalyst for a bullish scenario, which they now embrace as their base case. Moreover, the team highlights the upward revisions in 2024 earnings per share (EPS) estimates, which further solidify their positive outlook. They have adjusted their EPS projections to $225 from $235 for 2024, and $246 to $250 for 2025. While their growth estimates of 6.3% and 6.4% over the next two years may be lower than the consensus, they firmly believe that earnings will be a key driver of returns in 2024, supported by falling interest rates and incrementally higher multiples.

Standing at the Forefront of Forecasts

UBS’s upward revision positions them among the frontrunners when it comes to Wall Street’s 2024 forecasts for the S&P 500. Yardeni Research leads the pack with a target of 5,400, while JPMorgan trails behind with a target of 4,200. Notably, Goldman Sachs recently raised its own forecast to 5,100 from an earlier estimate of 4,700, reinforcing the overall sentiment of optimism in the market.

Implications for Investors

Despite a tumultuous start to the year, with concerns over investors’ potentially unwarranted optimism surrounding Fed rate-hike expectations, the S&P 500 remains steadfast, standing just 0.27% shy of a record close reached in January 2022. UBS’s bullish outlook, with a target of 5,150, suggests a potential 7.7% upside from current levels.

The implications for investors are significant. This revised forecast demonstrates UBS’s conviction in the resilience and growth potential of the stock market. It is important to remember that the S&P 500 is widely regarded as a benchmark index, representing a broad section of the US stock market. Therefore, UBS’s positive outlook for the index reflects its overall optimism for the market as a whole.


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UBS’s decision to revise its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,150 represents a clear vote of confidence in the US stock market’s future performance. The bank’s strategic team, taking into account various economic factors, anticipates a positive outlook characterized by robust earnings, easing inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and an improved economic backdrop. As the Swiss-headquartered bank’s forecast now stands among the highest on Wall Street, investors may find solace and reassurance in UBS’s optimistic vision for the year ahead.

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